Is Howard's Goose Cooked?
May 29th 2007 03:26
This goose is about to be cooked
I know it's really a duck, albeit a big one, about to be roasted by moi, but hey this is the internet - it's a goose avatar! The Newspoll this morning has no consolation for those coalition MPs and Senators in marginal, indeed not-so-marginal, seats. The goose entrails as interpreted by the high priests of polling suggest a wipe out for the Government at the next election.
There are two questions. Will this anti-government sentiment hold until polling day and is it a good thing to have an ALP Government with a whopping majority? The first question has to be put in the too-close-to-call category. It's possible that New York or Los Angeles will be vaporised in a "24" scenario. Even worse a container ship might explode in Sydney harbour and level a few square kilometres of the CBD. Both are unlikely, though more likely now than a decade ago. Was it Harold McMillan who said, "A week is a long time in politics". There's still time for the political version of a nuclear event, as well, a badly buried body doing a Lazarus or another family scandal (all too common in the ALP). Then there's always bird 'flu.
Assuming that the next election sees the PM and most of the cabinet loose their seats, even though inflation, unemployment and interest rates are at almost historic lows, what will the effect be on the nation? Again, it's anyone's guess. All those ALP back benchers with not much to do, a brace of inexperienced ministers and the ideological dualism that characterises the internal life of the Labor Party! As the saying goes, "The worst day in Government is better than the best day in Opposition."
My best guess is a narrow Government victory, ie less than five seats. If not, then the hitherto reliable rules of Australian politics will have to be re-written.
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